Wednesday, March 26, 2014

The end of speculation in the Bristol Bay Salmon fishery?

Probably not, but perhaps a start. I don't for a minute believe that I am on the only person with ties to the Bristol Bay salmon fishery completely irritated that the price of fish doesn't get posted until the end of the season. What other industry or business relationship does that? Does a person go into a restaurant not knowing the price of things on the menu? Well, may "market price" for seafood, but if you ask the server, they will tell you the price on that day. Not in the Bristol Bay salmon industry. You get your check at the end of the season, when fishermen are informed of the price. Well, perhaps this will start to change. As the Pacific salmon fishery starts its slow and gradual decline in numbers (all part of a natural 20-year cycle, called the Pacific Decadal Occillation (PDO), Bristol Bay sockeye begins its gradual uptick in price, along with a natural downswing in harvested salmon. This cycle was disrupted in the early 1990's primarily due to the advent of farmed salmon in the marketplace, and a preference for home-grown chum salmon (prized for their eggs) in Japan. However, the Bristol Bay salmon fishery has come back from this serious threat to the economic viability of salmon fishing with major improvements in quality, increased availability of ice (many thank to BBEDC and their investments in ice machines around Bristol Bay for that!), and advancements made in domestic marketing. We have shifted the balance of power from Japanese buyers to American consumers, with now over 60% of Alaska salmon being consumed domestically, compared to over 90% being bought by Japanese buyers in the past. However, the balance of power still lies primarily in the hands of salmon buyers in Bristol Bay, not with the fishermen who are risking their lives to bring this live-giving protein source to market. Well, my prediction is that in 2014, this is going to start to change. With smaller canneries breaking ranks with the "good ole' boys" club of the Seattle 7, we are starting to witness a period of more fair dealings with the fishing fleet. Prices will be posted - speculation on the fresh and frozen markets will be diminished, and fishermen will have a choice of who they would like to sell their catch to - on any given day. This is the essence and the spirit of a free market economy. The oligopoly that has characterized the Bristol Bay fishery is starting to be torn down, because it doesn't work. With fewer fish out there to catch, the competition will be for fishing fleet. Canneries are going to have to "sweeten the deal" a little bit more. Some canneries have starting offering mug up again to their fishing fleet. Others may move to offering free ice and other amenities for quality improvement. I have heard rumors that one new company is offering a signing bonus for fishermen to join their fleet. (Just make sure that the check doesn't bounce!) I have often been treated with derision and scorn when I make speculations and predictions about the salmon fishery in Bristol Bay. I mean, after all, what do I know? I'm only a girl with over 30 years experience of either participating peripherally or actively in this fishery either as a fishing family member, a seafood marketer, a salmon fisherman, and a seafood processor. But, I'm still a girl. And this is still a man's fishery. But, that might be changing too. 2014 is bound to be an interesting year for all. Personally, I am betting on the fishermen to come out on top and to finally be empowered to deal as free agents in a free market system. One can only hope.